Dev Kumar Thappla, Founder of Education2.0.
Climate change will have a devastating impact on food security as it is expected to reduce global crop yields by almost 20% by 2050. This includes an estimated reduction in maize production of up to 10% by 2100. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that climate change will lead to “new risk management challenges” for agriculture, especially in areas where natural hazards are common, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. There are three main impacts of climate change on food security: Extreme weather events; Changes in temperature and humidity; and Changes in CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases.
Changes in temperature and humidity
Climate change will cause an increase in temperature, especially at the higher latitudes, and a decrease in humidity in most parts of the world. A 1.8°C average increase in global temperatures will lead to a decrease in wheat yields by 15%, while a 3.6°C increase will lead to a 40% reduction in rice yields. These impacts will be particularly strong in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central and South America. Higher temperatures will also cause reductions in winter wheat yields in the Northern Hemisphere. This could have serious implications for areas like Canada and Russia that rely heavily on wheat exports. Higher temperatures will also reduce the length of the growing season in many areas, which will reduce yields even if there are no increases in rates of crop diseases.
Changes in CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities such as land use change, excessive use of fossil fuels, and deforestation are the primary cause of climate change. Higher CO2 concentrations could have a positive effect on global food production, but only if CO2 is applied in the right way. To grow plants well, CO2 is required in relatively large amounts. At present, CO2 concentrations are too low (about 400 ppm) to produce this effect, but they could rise to between 500 and 600 ppm by 2050. This would allow significant increases in crop yields in many areas, especially tropical regions. Other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere and cause more extreme weather events. Methane is produced by livestock, rice cultivation, and landfill sites, and its concentration could rise by 50% by 2100.
Extreme weather events
Climate change will also increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, which will affect agriculture. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that drought areas will increase by as much as 50%, with the greatest increases in arid areas such as southern Africa, southern Asia, and Central America. For example, a recent study has suggested that the UK will face an increased risk of severe droughts in the future, while in the USA and China, the risk of floods will rise. In large parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, the risk of both droughts and floods will increase. Droughts could have a significant impact on food production, especially in parts of Central America, East and Southern Africa, and South Asia. Floods, on the other hand, may affect crops in South Asia and East Asia, with the potential for significant damage to agricultural land.
Food loss due to deterioration
Food loss due to weather-related deterioration is particularly important in low-income countries with limited resources for storage and handling facilities. Such countries are expected to see a decline in their yield potential due to the effects of climate change. When crops are damaged by extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms, this is known as “weather-related crop loss.” In addition to these losses, there is also “deterioration of stored produce,” which is often overlooked. If the storage conditions are not suitable, produce such as grain, pulses, and legumes will gradually deteriorate. This often happens in tropical developing countries. The result will be a lower production potential compared to what would otherwise have been achieved.
Bottom line
Climate change will have a devastating impact on food security as it is expected to reduce global crop yields by almost 20% by 2050. These impacts will be particularly strong in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central and South America. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that climate change will lead to “new risk management challenges” for agriculture, especially in areas where natural hazards are common, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. There are three main impacts of climate change on food security: Extreme weather events, changes in temperature and humidity, and changes in CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases. (Image Source: Unsplashed)
