Saurabh Singh
Ukraine, which was part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic, won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991. The ongoing crisis stems from the protracted Russo-Ukrainian War that began in early 2014. It began with protests in the capital city of Kyiv in November 2013 against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union. After a violent crackdown by state security forces unintentionally drew an even greater number of protesters and escalated the conflict, President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.
• In March and April 2021, Russia started to mass thousands of military personnel and equipment near its border with Ukraine, representing the highest force mobilization since the country’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. This triggered an international crisis and generated concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry. The troops were partially removed by June. The crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were again massed near the border by December.
• In mid-December 2021, the Russian foreign ministry issued a set of demands which included a ban on Ukraine entering the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a reduction of NATO troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe for its military forces to be withdrawn. The United States and other NATO allies rejected these demands and have warned Russia of retaliation if Ukraine is invaded, including economic sanctions, and another assistance was deployed to Ukraine, including small arms and\ other defensive weaponry.
• In early February, Joe Biden, US President ordered nearly three thousand U.S. troops to border NATO countries Poland and Romania. The Biden administration has said the deployment is intended to be temporary and that U.S. troops will not enter Ukraine. Satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War.
• The conflict in Ukraine risks further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations and greater escalation if Russia expands its presence in Ukraine or into NATO countries. Russia’s actions have raised wider concerns about its intentions elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and a Russian incursion into a NATO country would solicit a response from the United States as a NATO ally. The conflict has heightened tensions in Russia’s relations with both the United States and Europe, complicating the prospects for cooperation elsewhere including on issues of terrorism, arms control, and a political solution in Syria.
• In the latest developments, Russian news agencies said that the forces are returning to the bases “after completing their tasks”. After the pullout, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, “February 15 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed,” she wrote. Ms. Zakharova further said that the West has been “shamed and destroyed without firing a single shot”. It was not immediately clear how many units were involved and what impact the withdrawals would have on the overall number of troops surrounding Ukraine, but it was the first announcement of a Russian drawdown in weeks. The development comes hours after fresh satellite images released by Maxar technologies showed massive troop build-up near Ukraine’s borders, which spurred fears of an invasion.
• Russia said it sent forces to Belarus and other neighbouring countries for military exercises, but the western powers widely believed that the troops were meant to attack Ukraine, which has shown overtures to join West-backed NATO.
• As the news of Russian troops leaving for their bases spread, it brought relief in oil markets. The price of the oil had reached its highest level since 2014. But British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss earlier told that words are easy, but the only thing she will believe is “when they move the troops away from the border”.
• The West-led resistance to Mr Putin’s push has warned of sanctions against the Kremlin if Russian troops enter Ukraine. These sanctions will impact key companies in Russia’s important energy, defence and financial sectors. However, some experts have warned of retaliation from Russia, like cutting of oil supply etc.
• As far as diplomatic efforts are concerned, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is holding a meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow to dissuade the Russian leader from attacking his ex-Soviet neighbour. French President Emmanuel Macron met Mr. Putin last week and told him that “sincere dialogue” is incompatible with escalation. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is insisting that NATO must give assurance that Ukraine will never be admitted as a member and roll back its presence in eastern European countries. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is insisting that NATO must give assurance that Ukraine will never be admitted as a member and roll back its presence in eastern European countries.
• US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed in a call late Monday that “a crucial window for diplomacy” will remain open. The Indian embassy, meanwhile, advised students and Indian nationals in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv to leave the country temporarily.
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